National Housing Report: June Sales and Prices Down (Except in Toms River, NJ)

NAR Releases June's Housing Market Report:

The National Association of Realtors recently released their housing numbers for June 2008. Here's a brief synopsis:

• Nationally; sales were down 16.4% and prices were down 7.9% versus June 2007
• Northeast; sales were down 19.9% and prices were down 3.0% " "
• South; sales were down 18.2% and prices were down 4.5% " "
• Midwest; sales were down 18.2% and prices were down 4.8% " "
• West; sales were down 10.1% and prices were down 17.2% " "

What does all this information mean? Well, according to the "National Media Outlets", it's the beginning of the Apocalypse! Fortunately for us, there are a few reputable analysts who read the POSITIVE in all these negative numbers.

"Overall, we've seen marked improvement in every region of the country over the previous month," said Steve Murray, editor of REAL Trends. "By no means is this reason to celebrate, but their are telltale signs that could indicate reasons for some optimism. Of particular interest was the increase in closed sales in California, up 6.6% versus June 2007, and Nevada, where sales were up 3.6% over a year ago. With these markets firming, there are signs that the worst may be in the past."

All Real Estate Is Local:

So, how did Toms River, NJ, compare to the Nation in June 2008? Here's how:

• Closed Sales (June 2008 vs June 2007); UP 9%!
• AVG Sales Price (June 2008 vs June 2007) ; UP .05%!

If we look back at the numbers in May 2008 versus May 2007:

• Closed Sales down 8.1% and prices down 6.2%

Toms River, NJ, may be ahead of the Nation in showing signs of firming? It's only two month's worth of data. Let's see what July's numbers say!

Perception Is Reality

and so, misperception is fantasy?

According to most of the major news sources; Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are on life support and Indy Mac should be tried as a war criminal. Combined with the current price for a gallon of gasoline and the "weakness" of the U.S. dollar, one would be INSANE to buy a home today, right?

"Buy Low, Sell High"

That's how one makes money in the stock market. Well, that's also how one makes money in the real estate market! After all, real estate is a commodity, an investment and a tax shelter. But it's more:

• It's a dream (Home Ownership)
• It's a lifetime
• It's a family
• It's memories

It's many different things to many different people. Can anyone place a price on a lifetime, or period, of memories?

20/20 Hind-sight:

Remember the late seventies, early eighties? Remember the late eighties, early nineties? Knowing what we know today, is it safe to say we all would have bought homes then if we could have? Of course we would have! Why then, are we scared to death to buy in the late 0's?

What does all this have to do with real estate in Toms River, NJ?

Everything! Although all real estate is local, perception is not. We, as consumers, are influenced by national and global news, events and yes, trends, or dare I say it, fads. We like to buy what everyone else is buying, when they are buying, and vice-verse.

So, a "bedroom community" within an hours drive of the financial capital of the world, with access to the Atlantic Ocean and the Pinelands, is prone to the same prejudice and social pressure as every other "place to live", or is it?