An Open Letter Concerning "Short Sales" to Prospective Home-Buyers & Real Estate Agents...

Dear Prospective Home-Buyers;

If you are in the market for a new home and may be considering a "Short Sale" in Ocean County, NJ, please take the 3 and a half minutes to watch this video first. Then, share it with your real estate agent!

Dear Fellow Real Estate Agents;

If you represent prospective home-buyers considering "Short Sales" in Ocean County, NJ, please take the 3 and a half minutes to watch this video. Then, share it with your clients!



As if the local housing market didn't have enough challenges, do we really need to complicate things by "enabling" our prospective home-buyers (many of whom suffer from the misconception that banks like to lose money) by allowing them to submit "offers" we know will never be approved?

Perhaps, these are the very same real estate agents that still take listings, at the Home-Seller's price, with the "intention" of working the price down over the next 6 months of agony? Ah, but that is another post entirely!

Here is what we know:
Slide courtesy of Keeping Current Matters.

We also know that mortgage interest rates have been trending UPWARDS recently. Which means that while some of us allow our clients to suffer the purgatory that is "waiting for a response from the bank", our prospective home-buyers may actually end up spending more money for their next home in the form of a higher monthly payment!

We have the power to stop the insanity. Let's educate our prospective home-buyers in Ocean County, NJ, perform our fiduciary responsibilities and actually earn a living!

What does the "Shadow Inventory" mean for Home-Buyers in Toms River, NJ?

We received this great comment on our last post, What is this "Shadow Inventory" and how will it affect the real estate market in Toms River, NJ, from Jeff Coon, of Freedom Mortgage:

For buyers, this does not mean you should wait, however- getting into a home with a low interest rate loan that is now available ( & may not be for much longer )and starting to build equity will offset any small reduction in the value of the home you are buying. Homes should not be bought for or as an investment, unless you are a real estate investor. Your home can & will turn into a profitable long term investment for you, so don't assume that you should wait just because prices are going lower.

Jeff beat me to the punch on this post as to why Home-Buyers in Toms River, NJ, should not wait to buy their next home even though home prices will continue to fall in the first half of 2011. Let us show you what we mean:

Slide courtesy of Keeping Current Matters!

So, as we can plainly see; even if home-prices continue to fall (up to 10% in this graph), the slightest rise in mortgage interest rates eliminates what ever savings the home-buyer perceives they are gaining and in some instances, the same home could COST them more in their monthly payment! For an excellent explanation of "Cost vs. Price", read this post by our friends at Keeping Current Matters.

How high will mortgage interest rates go?

That remains to be seen. What we do know is how mortgage rates are trending and they are trending UP!

Slide courtesy of Keeping Current Matters!

So, if you want to buy a home in Toms River, NJ, this may be the BEST time to buy despite the "shadow inventory" and even though home prices will continue to fall in the first half of 2011! And please remember, a house is more than a financial investment; it's a home, a lifestyle and it's all yours.

What is this "Shadow Inventory" and how will it affect the real estate market in Toms River, NJ?

We keep hearing the term, "shadow inventory" thrown around the real estate room these days. Exactly what is it and how will it affect me in Toms River, NJ?

Shadow Inventory refers to the "as of yet" unknown number of homes currently "in foreclosure" which have NOT been released to the market yet by the banks!


Slide courtesy of Keeping Current Matters!

So, what does that mean to me?

Well, if you NEED to SELL your home in Toms River, in 2011, there is currently a 13 month supply of homes on the market. That means; if no other listings were to come on the market from this day forward, it would take ONE YEAR and ONE MONTH to sell off the existing supply of homes in Toms River at the current sales pace.

Now, ADD the influence of the Shadow Inventory into the mix and 13 months turns into ? And there in lies the challenge; we DON'T KNOW how much actual Shadow Inventory is out there NOR do we know when it is actually coming on the market. What we do know is that this Shadow Inventory will ADD to the existing supply of homes and drive home prices down even further!

Our best guess-timate as to when this Shadow Inventory will come on the market is provided by 3 of the largest lending institutions themselves...the first half of 2011!

So, in a nut-shell; if you need to sell your home in Toms River, NJ, in 2011, your best bet to get the "highest possible price", is to list your home NOW, at a COMPELLING PRICE, before the Shadow Inventory is released some time in the first half of this year!

What will happen in the Housing Market in Ocean County, NJ, in 2011?

Before we can guess-timate at what may happen in the housing market in Ocean County, NJ, in 2011, we must take a look back and recognize exactly what occurred in real estate in 2010. Here's a short video summarizing the significant events in housing last year and their repercussions:




As we plainly see, the government's intervention in the housing market was well intended but mostly ineffective. The 3 major initiatives; Mortgage Modification (HAMP), The Home-Buyer Tax Credit and the unprecedented purchase of Mortgage Backed Securities, were all designed to stabilize Home Prices. FAIL!

For a more thorough and in-depth analysis of the Housing Market in 2010, please check out this blog post from the experts at Keeping Current Matters!

Now, understanding the "Law of Unintended Consequences", what will happen to the Housing Market in 2011? Without the interference from our government, the natural cycle of the free market should be able to run it's course (at last)! Here's another excellent post on this subject from the KCM CREW.

Here's our predictions for real estate in 2011:



So, to summarize; the "Laws of Supply and Demand" will be allowed to determine home values, Mortgage Interest Rates will continue to rise as the economy is allowed to recover and INTELLIGENT and REALISTIC Home-Buyers and Home-Sellers will benefit from the historic opportunity of a lifetime in real estate!

If you plan on living in Ocean County, NJ, 2011 is your year to buy a home! If you plan on "moving up" to a larger home in Ocean County, NJ, 2011 is your year to buy that home! If you plan on leaving Ocean County, NJ, in 2011, do it now before prices fall even further!

And the rest of the day to you...