How was the real estate market in Ocean County, NJ, in the first half of 2011? Well, that depends; were you looking to sell, looking to buy or “just looking”? Before we answer these questions, let’s LOOK at the numbers. The chart below shows everything (Single Family Homes, Condos, Adult Communities, etc.) that CLOSED/SOLD, in Ocean County, during the first six months of 2011:
Ocean County First Half of 2011
Rumor has it that Ocean County, NJ, is second only to Florida when it comes to “Adult Communities” and “Retirement Homes”. But, exactly how many Adult Communities and Retirement Homes are we talking about? According to the Ocean County Department of Planning, as of January 2010, there were 90 “Adult Communities” with a combined total of 65, 049 units in Ocean County, NJ.
Welcome to the Renaissance!
According to the Ocean County Department of Senior Services, Manchester Township leads the pack with 15 Adult Communities, followed by Brick Township with 12 and a three way tie for third with 9 Adult Communities each (Berkeley Township/Jackson Township/Toms River Township). For the complete list of Adult Communities in Ocean County, download the one page PDF here!
Six months ago, I recorded my predictions for the Ocean County Housing Market in 2011. To date, that video has been our most viewed video on our YouTube Channel. Just the other day, we received the following comment on said video:
The brief recovery in…2009…has now been entirely snuffed out, and the average American home now costs 33% less than it did in 2007. The fall in house prices in the Depression was 31%, and prices took 19 years to recover. Prices are back to their 2002 levels…”The national index fell 4.2% over the first quarter alone, and is down 5.1% compared to its year-ago level,” David Blitzer, the chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Indices, said.
—The Independent 1 June 2011 MrBloograss 2 days ago
Distressed Inventory
Our friends at Keeping Current Matters just wrote an excellent piece on The Impact of Distressed Properties on Neighboring Values. We, here at Coldwell Banker Flanagan Realty, have been warning our Ocean County residents about the “Shadow Inventory” since the beginning of the year. The BIG QUESTION has always been, just when will all of these distressed properties come to market? According to The KCM Crew, we should expect to see larger numbers of distressed homes coming on the market over the next 6 months in Ocean County, NJ.
Welcome to the Renaissance!
Last month we reported about the Ocean County Adult Community Real Estate Market for the First Quarter of 2011. This month we decided to take a “snapshot” of a specific Adult Community each week and we are beginning with the Renaissance in Manchester.
For a comprehensive look at most of the Retirement Villages in Northern Ocean County, NJ, check out this “White Paper”.
Manchester is home to a number of Adult Communities and Retirement Villages, including those located in the Whiting section of the township. What makes the Renaissance stand out from the crowd?
In 2010, 49 homes sold at an average sales price of $284,000 in the Renaissance. The average sales price for all of the Adult Communities in Manchester for 2010 was $95,000.
According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR): Existing-home sales1, which are completed transactions that include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, increased 3.7 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.10 million in March from an upwardly revised 4.92 million in February, but are 6.3 percent below the 5.44 million pace in March 2010. Sales were at elevated levels from March through June of 2010 in response to the home buyer tax credit.
Graphs property of FORTUNE!
Shawn Tully, editor-at-large for FORTUNE Magazine offered this optimistic and powerful argument why now is an excellent time to invest in real estate. Tully opens his argument by introducing us to Mike Castleman, the founder and CEO of a company called Metrostudy. What Metrostudy does, and does well, is collect the number of homes that are vacant and for sale in each city, and the number of months it takes to sell all of them.
Today Castleman is witnessing an extraordinary reversal of the new-home glut that helped sink prices just a few years ago. In the 41 cities Metrostudy covers, a total of 78,000 houses are now either vacant and for sale, or under construction. That’s less than one-fourth of the 343,000 units in those two categories at the peak of the frenzy in mid-2006, and well below the level of a decade ago. “If we had anything like normal levels of buying, those houses would sell in 2½ months,” says Castleman. “We’d see an incredible shortage. And that’s where we’re heading.”
Sinking Fast or Still Afloat?
Would it surprise you if we told you that Ocean County’s Waterfront Home Market is 39 sales ahead of the same time last year (Jan. 1st through March 31st)? What if we told you that even as sales of Waterfront Homes increased this year, the Months Supply of Waterfront Homes has remained steady at just over 21 months? Now, what if we SHOWED you that the Average Sales Price of Waterfront Homes in Ocean County fell from $659,495 in March of last year to $422,419 in March of 2011?
73% vs. 12%
Toms River Real Estate-1st Quarter 2011
This chart displays the sales and inventory of Single Family Homes in Toms River, NJ. The high-lighted area focuses on the first quarter of 2011. As we can see, sales dropped in February before spiking in March but the supply of homes for sale spiked in February and dropped in March (despite the current inventory increasing by over 120 homes)! Both of these factors could be attributed to March traditionally marking the beginning of the “Spring Selling Season”, when we historically see more homes come on the market in anticipation of more buyers entering the market, and January being the “snowiest” month in New Jersey in over 60 years.
Notice the significant differences in the high-lighted areas between February and March of 2010; sales shot up while inventory dropped! This is because we were entering the last 2 months of the “Extended Home-Buyer Tax Credit” here in Toms River. So, with the Federal Government offering up to $8,000 to home-buyers at this time last year, Toms River is only 12 sales behind, year-over-year. Why?
This chart illustrates the four distinct “types” of home-buyers that were active in Toms River during the First Quarter:
In a nutshell; without the artificial demand created by the “Extended Home-Buyer Tax Credit”, home prices have depreciated to levels that have made them attractive to investor buyers (short sales/foreclosures), first time home-buyers, move up buyers and high end buyers alike. Combined with slowly but steadily climbing mortgage interest rates, home-buyers may be jumping off that proverbial fence in Toms River, NJ.
Adult Communities in Ocean County-1st Quarter
This chart displays the sales and inventory of Homes in all of the Adult Communities in Ocean County, NJ. The high-lighted area focuses on the first quarter of 2011. As we can see, sales dipped in February but rebounded strongly in March. Both of these factors could be attributed to a “snowier” than usual January in 2011. The most significant factor to observe is the “Months Inventory”, which SOLD OFF 3 months worth of supply of homes in one single month (March)!
Ocean County's Adult Communities-1st Quarter of 2010
Notice the major differences, between this year and last, are the number of sales in January of this year (137 over 115) and the HUGE DIP in the “Months Inventory” in March of last year. The latter is because we were entering the last 2 months of the “Extended Home-Buyer Tax Credit” here in Ocean County. So, even with the Federal Government offering between $6,500 and $8,000 to home-buyers of Adult Communities at this time last year, Ocean County is 29 sales ahead of last year! Why?
Profile of Sold/Closed Homes in Adult Communities
As we can easily see, there was a SURGE in sales UNDER $100,000 in the Adult Communities of Ocean County in the first quarter of 2011! There were also significant increases in sales between $350,000 and $450,000.
In a nutshell; without the artificial demand created by the “Extended Home-Buyer Tax Credit”, home prices in the Adult Communities have depreciated to levels that have made them attractive to two “distinct” classes of retirees. Remember, beginning January 1, 2011; 10,000 “Baby Boomers” turn 65 each and every day, and will do so for the next 19 years! Obviously, they are finding what they want, need and can AFFORD in the Adult Communities of Ocean County, NJ.
First Quarter of 2011 in Ocean County
This chart displays the sales and inventory of Single Family Homes in Ocean County, NJ. The high-lighted area focuses on the first quarter of 2011. As we can see, sales have steadily increased month-over-month but the supply of homes for sale has remained relatively stable at just over 19 months. Both of these factors could be attributed to March traditionally marking the beginning of the “Spring Selling Season”; when we historically see more homes come on the market in anticipation of more buyers entering the market.
The First Quarter of 2010 in Ocean County
Notice the significant differences in the high-lighted area between February and March of 2010; sales shot up while inventory dropped! This is because we were entering the last 2 months of the “Extended Home-Buyer Tax Credit” here in Ocean County. So, with the Federal Government offering up to $8,000 to home-buyers at this time last year, Ocean County is only 24 sales behind, year-over-year. Why?
Sold/Closed (Year over Year) Ocean County
As we can plainly see, the most active price ranges (between $100,000 and $500,000), saw the most significant changes in the $100,000 to $149,999 and $150,000 to $199,999 price ranges; +54% and +23% respectively.
In a nutshell; without the artificial demand created by the “Extended Home-Buyer Tax Credit”, home prices have depreciated to levels that have made them attractive to investor buyers (short sales/foreclosures) and first time home-buyers alike. Combined with slowly but steadily climbing mortgage interest rates, home-buyers may be jumping off that proverbial fence in Ocean County, NJ.
Purchased from istockphoto.com
Last week, one of my freshman sales associates, Sally (not her real name), came into my office and confessed that she had been fired by her “buyers” the night before. What exactly did Sally do that prompted her “clients” to fire her? Her job!
Her former clients, whom I had the pleasure of meeting and consulting with myself the previous weekend, were a young couple looking for their “First Home” in Toms River. Sally had found them a NEW 3 bedroom, 2 bath Ranch listed for $208,900. It wasn’t in the greatest of locations but it was a BRAND NEW home for just over $200K. The young couple liked it so much, they asked his father to come take a look at it…and he did!
Herein lies the problem! As I wrote in a previous post, “No Secrets Here…”;
So, here we are again in Ocean County, 12 years later. The local housing market is poised for a recovery; home prices and mortgage interest rates are at historic lows and their is an abundance of homes to choose from (limited by price range of course). Let’s learn from history and not repeat it; your friends and family may mean well but they just may cost you the home of your dreams. Trust and listen to your real estate professional. Unless, you want to live with mom and dad for the next 12 years!
The father KNEW EVERYTHING about real estate and construction (it only costs $75 a finished square foot) and advised these “kids” to offer $135,000 with a mortgage or $125,000 cash. Now, I happened to be in the office when Sally returned with her “kids” to write up the offer and she did advise me as to the father’s instructions. My initial response to my sales associate was, “is the father with them now”? Unfortunately, he was not so I went with Sally to counsel our clients about their offer.
This is what is known as a NO WIN scenario. How do you counsel a young couple that their father is going to cost them the house they like? I did it as delicately as I could, with Sally observing, and we let them know we would submit their written offer but beware of the consequences (losing the house, not even getting a counter-offer, alienating the seller, etc.). Despite our cautious counseling, the “kids” stayed the course with the father’s directions and…Sally was able to get a counter-offer of $202,000 from the Seller…that’s when they fired her!
They said, and I quote, “that they didn’t like it that we were discouraging them from short sales and foreclosures and they agreed with their father that there are houses to be bought in that price range“. There are…but NOT in Toms River and NOT in that CONDITION and NOT in that (their) time frame! So, we were fired for being honest.
I told Sally to send them a “Thank You” card, for sparing her from the long, painful, frustrating “hell” that their business relationship would have become. She was now FREE to work with buyers that understand the opportunity that exists and WANT a home of their own!
Hope for NJ's Unemployed Home-Owners?
I was reading Ask Tara @Trulia, again, when I discovered this potential gem in her post, 5 Mortgage & Foreclosure Myths:
5. Myth: If you’ve lost your job and can’t make your mortgage payment, you might as well mail your keys in. Until recently, this was essentially true – virtually every loan modification and refinancing opportunity required that your economic hardship be over before you could qualify. And documenting income has always been high on the requirements checklist. But there are some new funds available in the states with the hardest hit housing and job markets, which have been designated specifically for out-of-work homeowners.
According to Tara, New Foreclosure-Prevention Programs will be made available to Home-Owners in 18 states and the District of Columbia…yes, New Jersey made the list!
The US Treasury Department’s Hardest Hit Fund has allocated $7.6 billion to 18 states so far– all of which are now using some portion of these funds to offer up to $3,000 per month for up to 36 months in mortgage payment assistance to help unemployed homeowners avoid foreclosure.
According to the official “Fund Site” for the State of New Jersey, The New Jersey Home Keeper Program, is “anticipated to START in the near future”? We will keep you posted as to when the “Fund” becomes available to unemployed home-owners in Ocean County, so be sure to check back here OFTEN!
Purchased from istockphoto.com
Both the national and local real estate news is “abuzz” with activity concerning mortgages lately. If you read our last post, you are aware that applications for home mortgages jumped to their highest level in three months last week. But, there was also a lot of “buzz” that many of us, in Ocean County, outside of the mortgage and real estate industries, may not be aware of…
A proposal to phase out the government subsidized entities of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac has been drafted and is already affecting borrowers even though it hasn’t been finalized. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were created by the government, after the second World War, as a means to increase home-ownership in the United States by requiring lower down payments to make home-ownership more affordable for more Americans.
By phasing out these government entities, the administration has all but guaranteed higher down payments and higher mortgage interest rates in the not too far future. As a matter of fact, effective April 18th of this year (one month from now), the FHA will be increasing their Mortgage Insurance Premium .25 of a percentage point on all registered FHA loans. As an example, a borrower putting down the minimum 3.5% on a $150,000, will see increase in their payment of $32/month.
Ok, so I can see the the window of opportunity for First Time Home-Buyers. Where’s the window for “Move Up” Home-Buyers in Ocean County?
Here it is:
With the rush of First Time Home-Buyers entering the Ocean County real estate market, anyone currently living in a 3 bedroom ranch style home that may be too small for their “growing family” could benefit by “buying UP in a DOWN market”! It is simply the “Law of Supply and Demand”.
There are NOT enough “good” homes on the market for First Time Home-Buyers in Ocean County right now. But, there are PLENTY of “Move Up” homes available! So, a family living in that 3 bedroom Ranch could get a “good” price for their home (provided they purchased it before 2003) and buy that 4 bedroom, 2.5 bath Colonial for a “great” price, with a 30 year fixed rate mortgage, at a historically low rate! Here’s an example of how a “Move Up” Home-Buyer could benefit from this window of opportunity in Ocean County:
CLICK on pictures to ENLARGE!
Loss
Gain!
Slides courtesy of KeepingCurrentMatters.com
So, the “window” is “open”, Ocean County…who is going to “Move Up” soon?
Courtesy of Matthew Guiro, (MBS) [Matthew.Guiro@mortgagefamily.com] Mar 9, 2011 (www.nytimes.com)
Applications for home mortgages jumped to the highest level in three months last week, buoyed by improvements in the job market, an industry group said on Wednesday.
The Mortgage Bankers Association said its seasonally adjusted index of mortgage application activity, which includes both refinancing and home purchase demand, rose 15.5 percent in the week ended March 4.
It was the highest level since the week ended December 10 and was the biggest increase since June 11.
“An improving job market is beginning to pave the way for an improving housing market,” Michael Fratantoni, MBA’s vice president of research and economics, said in a statement.
We wonder; does this increase also reflect the FHA’s announcement that Mortgage Insurance Premiums will increase .25 of a percentage point effective April 18, 2011?
Courtesy of Bankrate.com
RATEFORECAST
Mar 10, 2011 (Bankrate.com)
Will rates rise or remain relatively unchanged this week?
Industry experts and analysts provide their insights.
So, the question you have to ask yourself is; “Do I feel lucky?” or “Do I understand my window of opportunity may be closing?” Well, DO YOU?
And while we believe that all Americans should have access to affordable, quality housing, our goal is not for every American to become a homeowner.
Those are the exact words of Treasury Secretary, Timothy Geithner, in his prepared testimony before the House Committee on Financial Services!
Photo purchased from istockphoto.com
What does this mean?
In short, it means the current administration is shifting its “Housing Focus” from one of “Pro-Homeownership” to one of “Pro-Renter”. Mr. Geithner, and his peers, want to privatize the mortgage market, through the elimination of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and subsidize the rental market through the FHA.
The Administration will explore ways to provide greater support for rental housing. One option would be to do so by expanding FHA’s capacity to support lending to the multifamily market.
What does that mean?
That means, if the current administration has its way, it will become almost impossible for people with low incomes, and more difficult for people with moderate incomes, to own homes. On the flip side; those wealthy enough to afford the new, privatized mortgages will benefit immensely by their new ability to purchase “multi-family” housing (subsidized by the FHA) and collect rent from those less fortunate. Now that’s the true definition of Redistributing Wealth!
Is there still hope of one day realizing the American Dream?
Of course there is. These things have not happened yet and they may not happen at all. But, to be on the safe side; if you are ready, willing and able…DON’T HESITATE! For the rest of us; we, as Americans, must decide which America we want. For a more thorough and informative post on this subject, please read Redistributing Wealth to the Rich?
What are your thoughts, beliefs and/or opinions?
We are just over 2 months into 2011 and about to enter the traditional “Spring Real Estate Market” here in Ocean County, NJ. So, how is the market in Ocean County looking so far?
Slide courtesy of Keeping Current Matters!
As we can see, based on the chart above, we are experiencing an Extreme Buyer’s Market here in Ocean County. Home prices will continue to fall as inventory levels continue to increase (not including the Shadow Inventory wild card). Last year, at this time, the HomeBuyer Tax Credit was driving demand. What factors may affect this year’s “Spring Market” in Ocean County?
Well, according to some industry experts, 2011 could be the end of the housing crash! What are the economic factors in play signaling this possibility? Let’s take a look:
Any, and or all, of these factors may be behind the recent “spurt” of buyer activity we are currently experiencing here in Ocean County…not to mention the snow finally melted!
In a nutshell; if you are in the market to buy a home in Ocean County, BUY NOW! If you are in the market to sell a home in Ocean County this spring, DO IT NOW! If you don’t WANT to buy and don’t NEED to sell, please stay off of and out of the market in Ocean County! Thank you.
Now, I don’t know anything about them (the commenters) but I do know that the sources used by Simon Constable are not exactly known for agreeing with the terminally optimistic perspective of the National Association of REALTORS. I’m specifically talking about the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index and the analysts from Moody’s Analytics; both of which have historically opposed the “sunny” outlook of NAR’s Chief Economist, Lawrence Yun.
Housing is the most affordable it has been in decades, according to analysts at Moody’s Analytics. They don’t just look at house prices. They also look at incomes.
So, why then, is it so difficult to believe the “end” of the housing crash may be near? Perhaps it is because many of these “commenters” suffered some sort of financial setback as a result of the “Housing Bubble” or just because of the economy in general? Or is it just too easy for anyone with a computer and too much time on their hands to “comment” on anything and everything?
So as not to be lumped in with the latter, I’ll let the local real estate market speak for itself:
The “activity” we are currently experiencing in Ocean County, NJ, would tend to agree with Mr. Constable, the Wall Street Journal and Moody’s Analytics. But, I would be interested in the “comments” of our local community here in Ocean County…so, if you have a computer and a little time on your hands, be my guest!
